A rain/retirement parable

Question:  It’s fall.  Can I go for a picnic today?  The forecast is great!

Thought process:  The forecast is great.  There’s a 0% chance of rain.  Sure, I can go for a picnic.

Reality:  It didn’t rain today, but it had rained yesterday and the ground was still wet.  Good thing we had a picnic blanket in the trunk.

Question:  It’s fall.  Can I go for a picnic today?

Thought process:  The forecast is great.  There’s a 0% chance of rain.  Sure, I can go for a picnic.

Reality:  Despite the 0% chance of rain, it rained anyway.  But it was just a sprinkle, so we laughed it off and enjoyed the rainbow.

Question:  It’s fall.  Can I go for a picnic today?  The forecast is only for a 10% chance of rain!

Thought process:  The forecast is great.  10% isn’t very likely.  Sure, I can go for a picnic.

Reality:  It rained anyway.  Despite the minimal 10% chance of rain, it rained anyway.  But we were picnicking close to the car, the two of us sprinted for cover, and we finished our lunch with the heater running.

Question:  It’s fall.  Can I go for a picnic today?  The forecast is only for a 30% chance of rain!

Thought process:  30% isn’t very likely.  Sure, I can go for a picnic.

Reality:  It rained all morning, and by lunch time the ground was sodden.  The sounds of the birds coming back out to forage was great to listen to while we had a standing up picnic of sandwiches, the only humans in the park.

Question:  It’s fall.  Can I go for a picnic today?  The forecast is only for a 50% chance of rain!

Thought process:  50% chance of rain means 50% chance of not-rain.  Sure, I can go for a picnic.

Reality:  It rained, and it rained, and it rained.  When it stopped, we went for a hike to a remote picnic ground, thinking the rain had cleared off.  We got caught miles away from the car, the wind picked up, the sky opened, and we were immediately soaked to the skin in a cold September rain.  An hour later we got back to the car, thankful we had packed down-and-out bags of changes of clothing, thermoses of hot tea, and winter handwarmer chemical packs.

Question:  It’s fall.  Can I go for a picnic today?  The forecast is for a 70% chance of rain!

Thought process:  I want my grandma, in her wheelchair, to come too.  Sure, I can go for a picnic.

Reality:  We chose a picnic shelter that was handicap accessible, I packed lots of blankets and hot water bottles for Grandma, who was able to drive her car right up to the edge of the shelter.  There was a small group of people on the other side of the shelter, but there was plenty of room for all, and I loved getting to see Grandma who hadn’t been visit-able in months while she’d been in a nursing home for rehab of her badly timed broken ankle.  Since it’ll be getting snowy and too cold for her adventuring soon, this was my last chance to see Grandma in person before spring.  What a wonderful rainy day picnic.

Question:  It’s hurricane season down south, and scary winds are coming.  Can I have a picnic today?

Thought process:  A picnic is what you make of it.  Sure, I can have a picnic.

Reality:  My favorite, most important people in my whole world and I spent the day huddled under the stairs, with flashlights during the power outage.  We had planned ahead and had a lot of cheese and crackers and summer sausage all ready for a snack, and we had our gallons of water and emergency food, plenty of backup batteries, and we stayed safe.  It was the best picnic ever.

Lesson: 

You can go for a picnic whenever you desire, especially if you’re as much of an outdoor lover as I am.  But there are potential consequences to each choice, and flexibility is the best tool to deal with the vagaries of Minnesota’s fall weather.  Retirement can be viewed the same way.  What trade-offs are worth it to you?

The story behind this parable: 

It’s been one of those rainy fall weeks.  In the past 5 days, I’ve had it rain on me 4 separate days when the forecast didn’t call for rain or had very low probabilities.  That’s included flash-flood detours (forecast:  55% chance of rain at 7 am, 65% chance of rain at 8 am, and then done; reality:  it proceeded to not only deluge at >1” of rain in one particular bad few minute stretch in the 7 am hour, it hadn’t quit raining by noon), and raining on my laundry drying on the line while the hourly forecast for that very hour(and the next, and the next; all of which rained) called for a 0% chance of rain.  Obviously, I need a new weather guy!  And finally, we had originally been debating an outdoor wedding at this time of year; we went with indoor, but with outdoor pictures, and as it was we were still having to modify schedules and locations on the fly for ~85 guests.